The opposition bloc in Israel has gained a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp in the first exit polls from the country’s parliamentary election, but neither side appears to have secured an outright majority.
The exit polls, released after voting ended on Tuesday, October 27, projected the opposition bloc to win between 52 and 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 50 seats for Netanyahu’s allies.
However, Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to remain the largest single party, with 24 or 25 seats.
The projections were published by Israel’s three main television pollsters, Channels 11, 12 and 13, following an election marked by high voter turnout.
Eisenkot Emerges As Key Challenger
Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party was projected to secure between 21 and 23 seats, positioning it as a major force in efforts to form a government capable of ending Netanyahu’s tenure.
Several mainstream right-wing parties had pledged to work with Eisenkot and other opposition groups to build a coalition, potentially changing the political balance in Israel.
Following the release of the exit polls, Eisenkot said the initial results indicated a lack of confidence in Netanyahu’s government, which he linked to the October 7 attacks.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid described Netanyahu’s projected performance as a crushing defeat, while left-wing leader Yair Golan said voters had rejected the government.
Despite the opposition bloc’s projected lead, the results suggested that negotiations and alliances with other parties could prove decisive in determining who forms the next government.
Arab Parties Record Gains
Israeli Arab parties also made gains, with the Raam party and the Joint List projected to win a combined 17 or 18 seats.
Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, was projected to secure seven seats, while the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, was expected to win between 10 and 11.
Although the two parties were not formally part of the opposition bloc, both had indicated they could support an opposition-led government.
Their projected gains could therefore become significant in any attempt to assemble a parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu’s Allies Face Tough Contest
Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to win 24 or 25 seats, down from the 32 it secured in the previous election.
Other parties in his camp included Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben Gvir, with six or seven projected seats; United Torah Judaism, with six or seven; Shas, with six to eight; and Religious Zionism, with six.
On the opposition side, Naftali Bennett’s Beyahad party was projected to win between 12 and 14 seats. The Democrats, led by Golan, were expected to secure nine or 10, while Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu was projected to win between seven and nine seats.
In the previous election, Likud had formed a coalition with smaller far-right parties after Netanyahu struggled to secure support from some of his traditional allies amid corruption cases he faced.
The latest projections suggested that the political landscape could shift, although the final outcome would depend on the official results and the parties’ ability to negotiate a governing coalition.
The election drew strong public participation, with many voters viewing the contest as critical to Israel’s future.
