The anticipated by-elections in 16 constituencies across 12 states of the federation will hold today as scheduled by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

According to the electoral umpire, the exercise will be conducted in two senatorial districts in Anambra and Edo states; five federal constituencies in Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Ogun, and Oyo states; and nine state constituencies in Adamawa, Anambra, Kaduna, Kano, Kogi, Niger, Taraba and Zamfara states.

Checks revealed that today’s elections are an acid test for some political parties fielding candidates and their key gladiators.

One such party is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has dominated the political space since it absorbed some chieftains of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and aggrieved leaders of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) into its fold last July.

All eyes are on some of its prominent figures who have vowed to sink the APC in the next general elections. The list includes former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai; former Osun State governor and interim National Secretary of the ADC, Rauf Aregbesola; and former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.

In Anambra State, the battle is between APGA and the ADC, as the LP has been excluded from today’s election by INEC. The former LP candidate, embroiled in a war of attrition against the Julius Abure-led LP faction, has since directed his supporters nationwide to vote for ADC candidates.

Obi, who attended the formal unveiling of David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola as National Chairman and National Secretary of the ADC in Abuja on July 1, conveyed his endorsement of ADC candidates via his X handle:

“Kindly note that because the Labour Party has no recognised candidates by INEC due to the internal crisis, I humbly urge every member of the Obidient and COPDEM families to go out and vote for the coalition political party, African Democratic Congress (ADC), in their respective states.”

For the Anambra State Assembly seat, Obi also endorsed the wife of the late Labour Party Assembly member, Honourable Justice Azuka, who died at the hands of kidnappers in February this year.

By his pronouncement, Obi has given tacit support to the ADC candidate for the Anambra South Senatorial District, Donald Amamgbo.

Ahead of the November governorship election in Anambra State, victory for Obi’s preferred candidates could reinforce the former LP presidential candidate’s popularity in the South East and could be a cause for concern for Governor Charles Soludo, who is seeking a fresh mandate.

In Kaduna State, former Governor El-Rufai has been sighted mobilising support for the ADC candidate for the Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, Honourable Alex Adamu. INEC is also conducting an election into a vacant state assembly seat.

In this North West state, today’s exercise is a test of relevance between El-Rufai and his estranged political protégé and successor, Uba Sani. An unlikely victory for ADC candidates in both the federal and state assembly polls would unsettle not only Governor Sani but also the APC leadership in the North West. Today’s election is being perceived as a referendum on who truly controls Kaduna politics between El-Rufai and the incumbent governor.

Gong news checks revealed that the elections into federal constituencies in Oyo and Ogun states also represent a major test for Rauf Aregbesola, the interim National Secretary of the ADC and leader of the party in the South West, the home base of President Bola Tinubu.

Aregbesola, ahead of today’s election, has been criss-crossing the region and mobilising support for the ADC. The APC in Ogun State appears determined not to give the ADC breathing space. According to media reports, the ADC campaign for its Remo Federal Constituency by-election candidate was blocked by security agents on Thursday night.

A statement attributed to the ADC Chairman in Ogun State, Femi Soluade, alleged that the party—led by its National Secretary and former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola—was blocked from entering Sagamu by the police.

“Campaign train was violently disrupted, canopies removed, chairs broken, musical instruments seized, and an armoured tank stationed to intimidate our candidate, leaders, and supporters.”

Soluade alleged that the Divisional Police Officer in Sagamu, joined by the Area Commander, later blocked Aregbesola, the party’s South West chairman, Rasaq Eyiowuawi, himself, and other senior leaders at Isale Oko, ordering them to return to Abeokuta.

He further alleged that the police “gave the flimsy excuse that Governor Dapo Abiodun and his APC members were occupying every nook and cranny of the area, as if public space belongs to the ruling party!”

Nentawe: Will Ganduje’s supporters play spoiler in Kano?

In Kano State, elections will hold in two federal constituencies: Bagwai/Shanono and Gari-Tsanyawa. The exercise in Tsanyawa is, however, a rerun.

Checks revealed that the battle is between the ruling party in the North West state, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), the APC, and the ADC.

Investigations revealed that the Deputy Senate President and Senator representing Kano North, Barau Jibrin, has been leading other top APC chieftains to secure victory for the party’s candidates. Senator Barau is in the race for his party’s governorship ticket in 2027.

A party source said  that “a victory for the APC would be an eye-opener for President Tinubu that there is hope for the party in reclaiming lost ground in the North West state, and he could now be swayed to give up on his endless but fruitless efforts to win the former NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, over to defect to the APC.”

Indications have, however, emerged that the recently ousted APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has remained reclusive since his removal. A two-term governor in Kano State, his decision to distance himself from party activities has not gone unnoticed by his supporters, who have since shown indifference towards APC campaigns for the by-elections.

At the APC National Secretariat, the new National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, has been fully engaged ahead of today’s elections. Apart from attending rallies in some of the states, he has met with governors and zonal executives in the states where the polls will be held.