Food and fuel prices are rising globally as the effects of an exceptionally strong El Niño combine with economic disruptions caused by the ongoing war in Iran, the United Nations has warned.

The Chief Economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Maximo Torero, said the climate phenomenon was disrupting weather patterns worldwide, bringing heavy rainfall to some regions and severe drought to others.

Speaking to AFP, Torero explained that both extreme rainfall and drought could damage agricultural production, affect harvests and reduce supplies of crops used for animal feed.

He warned that flooding could be particularly destructive, as it can destroy stored food and damage roads, transportation networks and other infrastructure required to move agricultural products to markets.

According to him, the combined effects of extreme weather and rising production costs were already contributing to higher food and fuel prices.

“Markets react to expectations of future shortages and uncertainty itself can generate volatility,” Torero told AFP.

He added that the situation had been worsened by price shocks linked to the war in Iran, which had increased the cost of fuel and fertiliser for farmers while putting additional pressure on household spending.

Torero warned that vulnerable households would bear the greatest burden, particularly low-income families that spend a significant proportion of their earnings on food.

“For vulnerable households, even moderate food price increases can have huge consequences,” he said.

He explained that rising food prices could force poorer families to reduce their food consumption, settle for lower-quality diets and face increased risks of food insecurity and malnutrition.

In September, the FAO disclosed that it had received only one-fifth of the $202 million it requested to prepare for an El Niño-related food crisis across 22 high-risk countries.

2026 Could Become Second-Hottest Year

The climate crisis is also raising concerns about global temperatures, with the European Union’s climate monitoring service warning that 2026 is on course to become the second-hottest year on record.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates the Copernicus climate monitoring service, said October recorded remarkable global warmth, including record temperatures across the global surface and oceans.

“An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she said.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences weather patterns across the world, increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and extreme temperatures.

Scientists have warned that the current episode could contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record.

Peru Declares State of Emergency

In South America, Peru declared a state of emergency across large parts of the country over the threat of flooding associated with El Niño.

The decision followed Bolivia’s declaration of a national emergency over the effects of the weather phenomenon.

Heavy rainfall has already affected parts of Peru’s northern Tumbes and Piura regions, with authorities warning that more than nine million people, representing nearly a third of the country’s population, were at risk of flooding and landslides.

Sri Lanka Faces Future Drought Concerns

In Asia, El Niño-related drought conditions have raised concerns about possible shortages in hydropower generation due to hotter and drier weather.

Sri Lanka’s state-owned electricity company recently withdrew a proposed electricity tariff increase after heavy rainfall associated with El Niño improved water levels in hydroelectric reservoirs.

However, officials expect severe drought conditions during the first half of 2027, potentially forcing the country to rely more heavily on expensive and highly polluting thermal electricity generation.

Renewable energy, mainly hydropower and solar, currently accounts for approximately 70 per cent of Sri Lanka’s electricity supply.

Philippines Sets Aside $980m for El Niño Response

Meanwhile, the Philippines has announced more than $980 million for an El Niño response plan aimed at reducing the impact of climate-related risks on agriculture.

Agriculture contributes approximately eight per cent of the country’s gross domestic product and provides employment for one in four Filipinos.

The country’s Agriculture Department reported that unmilled rice production declined by 18 per cent in the three months leading to September, partly due to El Niño and increased fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the Iran war.

The country’s weather service also forecast below-normal to significantly below-normal rainfall for November.

Global Climate Concerns Intensify

According to an AFP analysis of Copernicus data, 33 countries recorded their highest October temperatures on record.

Scientists also reported an unprecedented early disruption to the polar vortex in November, an event that has occurred only three times during the same period since records began in the 1950s.

The disruption could increase the risk of cold spells and is believed to be linked to El Niño.

The latest developments highlight growing concerns about the combined effects of climate change, extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts on global food security, energy costs and vulnerable populations.