The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) has opened in Antalya, Turkey, amid rising global temperatures, geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over climate financing.
The two-week summit, which began on Monday, November 9, is expected to attract more than 100,000 participants, including representatives from nearly 200 countries, to discuss strategies for tackling the worsening climate crisis.
Negotiators are expected to focus on accelerating the transition to cleaner energy, expanding renewable energy sources and securing financial support for developing countries struggling with the effects of climate change.
However, expectations for major breakthroughs remain low as countries grapple with economic pressures, an oil price shock and geopolitical tensions arising from the United States’ conflict with Iran and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
The climate emergency has continued to intensify, with severe heatwaves affecting Europe, wildfires devastating parts of Indonesia and a glacier collapse triggering destructive floods in Nepal.
Scientists have also warned that an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon could peak later this year, potentially worsening extreme weather conditions and contributing to 2026 or 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.
In September, the United Nations warned that global temperatures were on course to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, the most ambitious limit established under the Paris Agreement.
Rachel Cleetus, climate programme director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called on world leaders to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and expand renewable energy production.
She said the current energy affordability crisis further reinforced the need for a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources.
Turkey, Australia Lead COP31 Negotiations
Turkey is hosting and presiding over COP31, while Australia is leading the negotiations under an unusual arrangement reached to resolve disagreements over hosting the conference.
The two countries have described the summit as an “implementation COP”, with an emphasis on translating previous climate commitments into practical action.
Turkey is also promoting an action agenda encouraging voluntary commitments on issues ranging from artificial intelligence to waste management.
A major component of the initiative is an electrification drive aimed at increasing the share of global energy demand supplied by electricity from approximately 20 per cent currently to 35 per cent by 2035.
However, disagreements could emerge over what constitutes clean electrification.
The European Union has called for clean electrification, raising questions about the extent to which fossil fuels should feature in Turkey’s proposed initiative.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, but negotiations over implementing the commitment have remained difficult.
COP30 in Brazil ended without an explicit reference to fossil fuels in its final agreement after opposition from oil-producing countries.
Brazil subsequently developed a voluntary roadmap outlining proposals for phasing out fossil fuels, allowing individual countries to adapt the recommendations to their circumstances.
Developing Countries Demand More Climate Finance
Climate financing is expected to be another major area of disagreement at COP31.
Developing countries are pressing wealthier nations to honour financial commitments intended to help vulnerable economies adapt to climate change and recover from extreme weather disasters.
African countries are particularly pushing for discussions on tripling adaptation finance to support measures such as constructing sea walls, improving agricultural resilience and planting drought-resistant crops.
However, a senior European Union official has warned that there may be little political appetite for additional funding commitments.
The United States’ absence is also expected to affect climate diplomacy following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement.
Although the US administration has not sent officials to the conference, a congressional delegation is expected to attend, with Democratic lawmakers buoyed by their party’s historic victory in last week’s midterm elections.
Despite the challenges facing negotiators, Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, described the atmosphere ahead of the discussions as positive.
He urged participating countries to translate the favourable atmosphere into concrete and successful outcomes.
The negotiations are expected to continue over the next two weeks.
